US diesel tops $6 for the first time. Now it is Trump's problem
On Friday the average price of diesel in the United States crossed $6 per gallon for the first time on record. GasBuddy put it at $6.06, after the EIA's weekly reading from September 7 came in at $5.97. Diesel is up roughly $2.30 from a year ago, and in California it is closing on $8.Fig. 1. US average diesel price through 2026, dollars per gallon. The dashed line is the previous record set in June 2022. Source: EIA and GasBuddy.
The cause is not crude by itself, even though WTI pushed above $100 this week for the first time since May. Diesel is expensive because there is nowhere to refine it. Valero estimates the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine have knocked out about 5 million barrels per day of refining capacity, and Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates says the world has lost almost 8% of its diesel supply. US refineries are running at 98% of capacity.
- the campaign against Iran, launched February 28, has choked shipments through the Strait of Hormuz;
- Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries pushed Moscow to ban diesel exports;
- Houthi attacks have hit the refineries of US allies in the Gulf.
Fig. 2. Diesel prices across US regions on September 7, 2026, dollars per gallon. The dashed line marks $6. Source: EIA.
Politically, the timing could hardly be worse. The midterm elections are on November 3, less than eight weeks away. Trump's approval sits at a record-low 33% in Reuters/Ipsos polling, and on inflation and fuel prices it runs in the mid-20s. This week Republicans held their first-ever midterm convention in Dallas, where Trump asked supporters to vote as if his name were on the ballot.
The White House has few tools left. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is already spent: after Trump ordered the release of 172 million barrels, it fell below 300 million, the lowest since 1983. Suspending the federal fuel tax would cut diesel by only about 15 cents, Penn Wharton estimates. So Trump has chosen the second path - explaining. In March he wrote that higher prices are a "very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace"; in August he told a rally to accept "a tiny little bit more for your gasoline." Vice President JD Vance said prices "could've been much, much higher."
⚠ IMPORTANT
Diesel is a refining problem, not an oil problem, so neither the reserve nor a tax pause fixes it. Before the election, Trump is left with the argument that the price is small.