IDX Analysis for September 4, 2026
The Yen-led intervention pushed the Dollar Index down by 0.5, while the pair itself completed a full bearish margin cycle.
Currently, the Dollar Index is testing both the 0.5 level from its high and the lower boundary of the weekly Average True Range (ATR). We expect to remain in this range for now, as all market attention is fixed on today's Non-Farm Payrolls release.
The scenarios are clear:
- Weak report (below +40k or a spike in unemployment) - the most volatile outcome: acceleration of rate cuts, dollar weakness, and a new wave of demand for gold, silver, and currencies. The Dollar Index will break through the support zone.
- Strong report - dollar strengthening, causing a bounce from the 0.5 level, effectively keeping the index within the current bullish margin cycle.
- Data within +/- 20-25k of consensus - muted reaction, though pre-release positioning remains aggressive.