Gold (XAU) Forecast - May 5, 2026
Gold has been following the bearish scenario outlined in the previous forecast:
This is more of a mid-term view on gold.
Ideally, I’d like to see a move lower to finish off the put side and build liquidity there before a push higher.
That said, if price goes straight for the 4690 area, holds above it, and transitions into an upward cycle, the market could continue higher without a deeper pullback, following the levels above.
At the current levels (between the 1/4 and 1/2 margin zone), there’s no clear directional bias. We need to see a push out of this range first.
Within the framework described above, the direction of that initial move isn’t even that...
We even got a clean move through the 1/4 margin zone.
Right now, gold is reacting to every headline around Iran. The latest: Hegseth stated that the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is still holding.
At the moment, price is sitting around the 1/4 level, where short positions make sense — but strictly with a stop in place.
Given how unpredictable incoming news can be, I’m looking at two scenarios:
- Bearish continuation - a move lower to complete the zone, in line with the previous outlook.
- Bullish correction - a break above the 1/4 level and the strike referenced in the previous post around 4590. In that case, a move to rebalance prior levels and a push back toward the 1/2 zone would be logical, currently in the 4638–4651 area.
If you’re selling from current levels (around the 1/4), make sure to place your stop above the mentioned zone.