Some 50 million Europeans will have to choose between food and heating this winter. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen warned in Luxembourg on 29 October that close to 50 million people in the EU cannot heat their homes adequately, and "probably that number will be higher". The situation, he added, will persist into 2027.
The figure is not new: Eurostat has tracked it for years. In 2025, 8.8% of EU residents could not afford to keep their home adequately warm, down from 10.6% in 2023 but well above 6.9% in 2019. At 8.8% of roughly 450 million people, that is about 40 million; Jørgensen counts those already rationing heat and those about to start.
Fig. 1. Share of EU residents unable to keep their home adequately warm, %. Source: Eurostat.
The gap between countries is wide: Greece 18.1%, Lithuania 16.7%, Bulgaria 16.1%, Spain 15.9%, Finland 2.6%.
Fig. 2. Unable to keep home adequately warm, 2025, % of population. Source: Eurostat.
The driver is price. European gas is up about 140% since February and diesel has doubled, as the US-Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz disrupt supplies. TTF briefly touched EUR 100 per MWh in October, the first time since December 2022. Gas storage is 75% full against 83% a year earlier.
The figure is not new: Eurostat has tracked it for years. In 2025, 8.8% of EU residents could not afford to keep their home adequately warm, down from 10.6% in 2023 but well above 6.9% in 2019. At 8.8% of roughly 450 million people, that is about 40 million; Jørgensen counts those already rationing heat and those about to start.
Fig. 1. Share of EU residents unable to keep their home adequately warm, %. Source: Eurostat.
The gap between countries is wide: Greece 18.1%, Lithuania 16.7%, Bulgaria 16.1%, Spain 15.9%, Finland 2.6%.
Fig. 2. Unable to keep home adequately warm, 2025, % of population. Source: Eurostat.
The driver is price. European gas is up about 140% since February and diesel has doubled, as the US-Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz disrupt supplies. TTF briefly touched EUR 100 per MWh in October, the first time since December 2022. Gas storage is 75% full against 83% a year earlier.
What Brussels is doing
Jørgensen promises a "tough winter" but insists the EU uses 18% less gas than in 2022 and has cut its dependence on a single supplier. The Commission has proposed cutting electricity bills through taxes and grid fees, and 12 countries are releasing 42.6 million barrels of strategic reserves, half of it diesel.
⚠ IMPORTANT
Fifty million is not a forecast for 2027 but today's reality, now acknowledged out loud. Jørgensen's figure runs a quarter above the Eurostat statistic because he counts not only those already cold but those on the edge. While gas trades near EUR 100 and storage empties faster than usual, the choice between food and warmth stops being a metaphor.