European gas prices back at crisis-era highs: still short of EUR 80
The front-month contract at the Dutch TTF hub rose 2% on Tuesday morning to USD 86.90 per megawatt-hour, or EUR 74.82. That is the highest level since the height of the 2022-2023 energy crisis and above the January 2023 readings, when Europe was passing its first winter with almost no Russian pipeline gas.Fig. 1. European gas storage fill ahead of winter: 2026 sits at a near twenty-year low. Source: Gas Infrastructure Europe, September 2026.
Here the talk of a "record above EUR 80" gets interesting. There is plenty of noise, but the barrier has not actually been broken: EUR 74.82 is still below the round EUR 80 mark. What is genuinely worrying instead is the state of storage.
European gas storage is only 63% full, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. That is the lowest level for this time of year in almost two decades. For comparison, at the same point in 2025 facilities were 82% full, and the five-year average is above 80%. The EU is at risk of missing even its soft 75% target for November 1.
- 2026 - 63% of capacity;
- 2025 - 82%;
- Five-year average - around 80%;
- EU target for November 1 - 75%.
The driver is the Middle East. The war and the Ormuz Strait, effectively closed to LNG, have crushed Qatari exports, while the race for the remaining cargoes between Europe and Asia only intensified. Asian spot LNG is already at its highest since 2022.
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"European and Asian gas prices have surged as the market adjusts to a more prolonged disruption to LNG supply. Europe is pricing up to outcompete Asia for marginal LNG," analysts at Timera Energy wrote.
Spot prices have jumped 50% since mid-June, Wood Mackenzie adds. That is already feeding into bills: the UK energy regulator raised the household price cap by 4% for October-December, putting bills at a three-year high.
If LNG does not start flowing back through the Ormuz Strait any time soon, Europe is in for its most expensive winter in years. Far from being a peak, the soaring gas prices may turn out to be just a warm-up.
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Takeaway: it is premature to talk about EUR 80 per megawatt-hour, but the current EUR 74.82 and the twenty-year low in storage are a worrying signal both for bills and for refilling the tanks for next winter.