We have returned to the 1/2 zone from the low, and the pair now requires a catalyst to either consolidate or immediately break through the extreme.
In this scenario, we would pivot into an upward margin cycle with targets near 1.1707. However, should a breakout to the upside occur, we are more likely to head toward the strike at 1.1757, which holds a very high level of open interest.
Regarding recent news (where one event offsets another):
Israel will not adhere to the terms of the U.S.-Iran peace agreement because it is "not a banana republic" and does not answer to Washington, stated National Security Minister Ben-Gvir.
Iran will permit free transit through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days in accordance with the pact — FARS
The situation for the Euro remains unchanged. We failed to break the 1/2 level yesterday, yet I still anticipate another attempt.
I remain inclined toward the previously outlined model.
US and Europe Disagree on Reopening the Strait of Hormuz
US President Donald Trump asserts that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened by the end of the week. However, European allies hold a different view, suggesting that global flows of crude oil and liquefied natural gas cannot be restored so rapidly.
