After Democrats retook both chambers of Congress in November 2026, prediction markets sharply repriced the odds of Donald Trump's impeachment. On Kalshi the chance of impeachment before 2028 jumped to 69% - a record since the market launched in November 2024, according to The Independent. On Polymarket the chance the House impeaches him before his term ends in January 2029 reaches 72.5%. Both platforms are prediction markets, not official forecasts, but they react fast to the balance of power in Washington.
Fig. 1. Impeachment versus removal: probabilities per Kalshi.
The key nuance is the gap between impeachment and actual removal. The House impeaches by a simple majority, which Democrats now hold. But only the Senate can convict and remove a president, and it takes a two-thirds vote. Trump has already been impeached twice - in 2019 and 2021 - and the Senate acquitted him both times. The higher odds reflect not so much a belief in regime change as the near-certainty of harsh oversight: investigations, subpoenas and hearings under a Democratic Congress.
Fig. 2. 54 Democratic seats versus the 67-vote threshold.
So the real indicator to watch is not whether the House impeaches, but how many Senate Republicans prove willing to convict.
Fig. 1. Impeachment versus removal: probabilities per Kalshi.
The key nuance is the gap between impeachment and actual removal. The House impeaches by a simple majority, which Democrats now hold. But only the Senate can convict and remove a president, and it takes a two-thirds vote. Trump has already been impeached twice - in 2019 and 2021 - and the Senate acquitted him both times. The higher odds reflect not so much a belief in regime change as the near-certainty of harsh oversight: investigations, subpoenas and hearings under a Democratic Congress.
Why removal is a long shot
After the election Democrats hold 54 Senate seats, while conviction requires 67. To remove Trump they would need to flip at least 13 Republicans - a scenario the market prices at just 17%. For comparison, the simple House majority (218 votes) is already guaranteed for Democrats, so the first step of the process looks almost inevitable.Fig. 2. 54 Democratic seats versus the 67-vote threshold.
So the real indicator to watch is not whether the House impeaches, but how many Senate Republicans prove willing to convict.
⚠ IMPORTANT
The takeaway: bookmakers are pricing in the process itself - House impeachment is already nearly half-priced-in. But "impeachment" is not "leaving office": without a mass Republican split in the Senate, Trump will most likely serve out his term to January 20, 2029. Markets still treat this as political noise, not an event that breaks the dollar or stocks.