A record expiration and record volumes: what history shows

A record expiration - and record volumes​

Today, 18 September, is the quarterly triple witching: index futures, index options and single-stock options all expire on the same day. Citadel Securities estimates that about 9.6 trillion dollars of US options exposure is expiring by this date, roughly 35% of the entire market. About 6.2 trillion falls on the Friday itself, and that could beat June's record of 7.7 trillion. Bears traditionally expect a crash after expiration, so it is worth looking at the history of the expirations themselves - and at the volumes.

A history of expiration records​

The options market has been growing for years, and the quarterly records are falling faster and faster.

Fig. 1. Notional of options expiring on the quarterly expiration day, $ trn. The asterisk marks an estimate. Source: Goldman Sachs, Citadel Securities, Investing.com.

• September 2025 - about 6.3 trillion dollars;
• December 2025 - 7.1 trillion, a record according to Goldman Sachs;
• June 2026 - 8.3 trillion on a broad definition, up 18% from December;
• September 2026 - 6.2 trillion on the expiration day alone, per the 27 August estimate, plus a position that is still growing, while 9.6 trillion expires over the full window to 18 September.

The figures differ between sources because the scopes differ: Citadel counts options only and put June at 7.7 trillion, while agencies using a broader exposure measure put it at 8.3 trillion. The point is not the exact number but the trend - every quarter sets a new record.

Volumes: records on top of records​

The second chart shows what is happening in options clearing.

Fig. 2. Total options contracts per month, bn, 2025 vs 2026. Source: OCC.
According to OCC, every month of 2026 was above the same month a year earlier. Year-to-date average daily volume is about 70.5 million contracts, 23% more than in 2025. The peak came in June - 1.60 billion contracts for the month, up 45% year over year, and June is a quarterly expiration month. Cboe separately flagged a July record: same-day-expiry contracts (0DTE) accounted for 66% of S&P 500 options volume.

ℹ INFO Volumes have been rising for years: the options market is now bigger and more sensitive to expiration dates. The larger the position, the more visible the hedging flows around big strikes.

What history shows after expiration​

Now to the bears' central question. Using daily S&P 500 data since 1990, I calculated:

• in the week after expiration the index loses 0.13% on average, and falls in 62% of quarters;
• a month later the average result is +0.97%, and the market is higher in 66% of cases;
• September is weaker than the rest: the week after the September expiration was negative in 78% of cases, down 0.99% on average.

According to Stock Trader's Almanac, cited by CNBC, the week after the September expiration has been down in 27 of the past 34 years, and the fourth week of September has averaged minus 1.06% since 1990. The cause is probably not the options themselves but end-of-quarter portfolio restructuring.

⚠ IMPORTANT The central tension: a record expiration removes the market makers' buffer, and the September statistics point to a short drawdown. But history gives no basis for expecting a crash - a month later the market is more often higher than lower.

What it means now​

The S&P 500 peaked at 7,798.99 on 13 August and slipped to 7,637.76 by 17 September, roughly 2%. The 10-year Treasury yield is at its highest since 2007 (5.01% on 16 September) and the VIX is around 15.4. Citadel Securities, meanwhile, calls September a "tactical downside window" and advises selling into strength and buying protection, looking for a better entry around mid-October.

The short version​

A 9.6 trillion dollar expiration and record volumes are first of all about the scale of the derivatives market, not about predicting direction. History says the week after expiration is weaker and the month after is stronger. Watch the volumes, the 5% level on the 10-year Treasury, and how the market behaves after Friday.